Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- David HamiltonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Alex JacksonBatting2-3
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hamilton doubled to left, Lowe scored and Rafaela scored.5–0
- 8Narváez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Rafaela scored, Narváez out at second.3–0
- 3Hamilton homered to right (364 feet).2–0
- 2Story homered to left (372 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -120 / BAL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- BAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +20 | BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +4 Elo | BOS 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 15th of 3031–35 | Road vs home | 31–3424th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 7th of 301531 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–62 | 65–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–43 | 20–37 |
| Underdog | 38–19 | 45–29 |
| Overs–unders | 67–65 | 59–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 16–20 BAL in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 36.