Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (356 feet), Goldschmidt scored.2–7
- 6Lowe singled to center, Bregman scored and González scored, Story to third.2–5
- 5Grisham homered to right center (413 feet).0–5
- 4Caballero hit sacrifice fly to center, Stanton scored, McMahon to second.0–4
- 3Grisham homered to right (406 feet).0–3
- 2Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (372 feet), Stanton scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML BOS +135 / NYY -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- BOS +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +6 | BOS: Dustin May: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +30 Elo | NYY 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 3030–34 | Road vs home | 37–2813th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 6th of 301532 | Elo rating | 15307th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–60 | 57–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–42 | 45–64 |
| Underdog | 38–18 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 66–64 | 62–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 23–12 NYY in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 35.