Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Orlando ArciaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak tripled to right, Ritter scored.5–6
- 8Happ homered to center (429 feet), Busch scored and Tucker scored.5–5
- 7Doyle hit sacrifice fly to right, Arcia scored.2–5
- 4Arcia singled to center, Fulford scored.2–4
- 4Fulford tripled to right, Farmer scored.2–3
- 3Doyle singled to center, Freeman scored, Tovar thrown out at third.2–2
- 3Freeman reached on bunt single to first, Fulford scored, Arcia to second.2–1
- 3Suzuki doubled to center, Busch scored and Shaw scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 70%
- ML CHC -265 / COL +215
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 69.0%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -229
- COL +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 6.2 – 4.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +2 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +139 Elo | CHC 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 72.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3037–33 | Road vs home | 21–4730th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 5th of 301538 | Elo rating | 138230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–72 | 67–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 42–49 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 22–23 | 65–65 |
| Overs–unders | 67–69 | 60–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 13–4 COL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.