Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Kyle TuckerBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- McCade BrownPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Goodman hit sacrifice fly to center, Moniak scored.4–3
- 6Moniak tripled to right, Freeman scored.4–2
- 6Tucker singled to right, Busch scored.4–1
- 5Kelly hit sacrifice fly to left, Suzuki scored.3–1
- 5Happ doubled to center, Tucker scored, Suzuki to third.2–1
- 2Fernández singled to right, Bernabel scored, Fernández thrown out at second.1–1
- 1Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to center, Tucker scored, Suzuki to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 64%
- ML CHC -200 / COL +165
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 64.9%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.9 – 4.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +24 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: McCade Brown: team allows 1.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +107 Elo | CHC 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 64.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3036–33 | Road vs home | 21–4630th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 6th of 301537 | Elo rating | 138230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–71 | 66–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 42–48 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 22–23 | 64–65 |
| Overs–unders | 67–68 | 60–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 12–4 COL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.