Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Yanquiel FernandezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- German MarquezPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Farmer homered to left (422 feet), Fernández scored.11–7
- 7Karros hit sacrifice fly to center, Goodman scored, Doyle to third.11–5
- 7Doyle doubled to center, Tovar scored, Goodman to third.11–4
- 7Busch homered to center (466 feet).11–3
- 7Swanson homered to center (441 feet).10–3
- 6Arcia doubled to left, Karros scored.9–3
- 5Shaw singled to left, Swanson scored.9–2
- 5Swanson tripled to right, Suzuki scored, Happ scored and Hoerner scored.8–2
- 5Happ hit a ground rule double, Tucker scored, Suzuki to third.5–2
- 5Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to center, Busch scored.4–2
- 4Fernández homered to center (426 feet), Doyle scored.3–2
- 4Happ homered to left (381 feet).3–0
- 2Swanson homered to left center (416 feet), Hoerner scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 66%
- ML CHC -225 / COL +185
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 69.5%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -197
- COL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 6.0 – 4.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +2 | CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +143 Elo | CHC 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 68.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 5th of 3035–33 | Road vs home | 21–4530th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 5th of 301536 | Elo rating | 138430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–71 | 66–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 41–48 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 22–23 | 64–64 |
| Overs–unders | 66–68 | 59–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 11–4 COL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.