Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Yanquiel FernandezBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jason AlexanderPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walker homered to left center (409 feet).3–4
- 5Fernández homered to right center (368 feet).3–3
- 4Tovar homered to right center (364 feet).2–3
- 3Moniak grounded into fielder's choice to second, Fulford scored, Freeman out at second, Fernández to third.1–3
- 2Salazar reached on bunt single to pitcher, Dubón scored on error, McCormick to second, Salazar to second, McCormick safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Freeland.0–3
- 1Walker homered to right (333 feet).0–2
- 1Altuve homered to left center (369 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 69%
- ML COL +205 / HOU -250
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 71.4%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -218
- COL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 5.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +11 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +159 Elo | HOU 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 30th of 3017–50 | Road vs home | 39–2813th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 30th of 301384 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–68 | 65–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 30–54 |
| Underdog | 63–64 | 35–14 |
| Overs–unders | 59–74 | 63–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–10 HOU in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.