Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Henderson singled to center, Holliday scored.2–13
- 9Holliday doubled to center, Johnson scored.1–13
- 8Gilbert doubled to right, Schmitt scored, Koss to third.0–13
- 8Matos hit sacrifice fly to left, Smith scored.0–12
- 8Schmitt doubled to left, Adames scored, Smith to third.0–11
- 6Bailey walked, Smith scored, Matos to second, Schmitt to third.0–10
- 6Matos grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Devers scored, Schmitt safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Vázquez, Smith to third.0–9
- 6Smith singled to right, Ramos scored, Devers to third.0–8
- 4Ramos singled to left, Gilbert scored.0–7
- 4Gilbert tripled to left, Bailey scored and Koss scored.0–6
- 4Koss reached on infield single to third, Matos scored on throwing error by third baseman J. Jackson, Bailey safe at third on error.0–4
- 3Adames hit sacrifice fly to center, Ramos scored.0–3
- 3Devers singled to center, Gilbert scored, Ramos to third.0–2
- 1Devers homered to center (424 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML BAL +125 / SF -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- SF: Elo 50.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -135
- BAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.9 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −9 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +4 Elo | SF 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3030–38 | Road vs home | 34–3422nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 20th of 301490 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–68 | 56–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–37 | 21–56 |
| Underdog | 47–31 | 35–24 |
| Overs–unders | 61–75 | 65–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–4 SF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.