Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jeremiah JacksonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tristan BeckPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Jackson scored on Gage wild pitch, Henderson to second on wild pitch by Gage.11–1
- 8J. Jackson scored on Gage wild pitch, Henderson to second on wild pitch by Gage.11–1
- 8J. Jackson doubled to right, Basallo scored and Johnson scored.10–1
- 7Beavers singled to left, Mountcastle scored.8–1
- 4Henderson hit sacrifice fly to right, Holliday scored.7–1
- 4Holliday tripled to center, Johnson scored.6–1
- 4Basallo homered to left center (376 feet).5–1
- 3Mountcastle homered to center (434 feet), Henderson scored.4–1
- 3J. Jackson homered to left center (390 feet), Johnson scored.2–1
- 1Adames homered to left center (381 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML BAL -120 / SF +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 48.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −3 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Carson Seymour (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SF +8 Elo | SF 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3029–38 | Road vs home | 34–3321st of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Elo rating | 149819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–68 | 56–79 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–37 | 21–56 |
| Underdog | 47–31 | 35–23 |
| Overs–unders | 60–75 | 64–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–4 SF in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.