St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jimmy CrooksBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Reds- Austin HaysBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8McLain homered to left (370 feet).4–7
- 7Hayes singled to center, Hays scored.4–6
- 7Crooks homered to right (384 feet).4–5
- 5Hays homered to left (383 feet), De La Cruz scored.3–5
- 3Herrera hit sacrifice fly to right, Nootbaar scored.3–3
- 2Friedl singled to left, Hayes scored and Steer scored, McLain to second.2–3
- 2Hayes singled to right, Lux scored, Steer to third.2–1
- 1Saggese singled to right, Herrera scored, Saggese to second.2–0
- 1Gorman hit sacrifice fly to left, Nootbaar scored, Herrera to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML STL +120 / CIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 57.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +7 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +51 Elo | CIN 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 20th of 3031–37 | Road vs home | 36–3015th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–71 | 71–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 21–41 |
| Underdog | 43–29 | 49–24 |
| Overs–unders | 73–64 | 54–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 19–16 CIN in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 35.