Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Tommy PhamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Walker homered to center (404 feet), Saggese scored.1–4
- 7Saggese doubled to center, Winn scored.1–2
- 3Herrera doubled to left, Nootbaar scored, Herrera thrown out at third.1–1
- 1Pham homered to left center (440 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML PIT +100 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- STL: Elo 49.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −11 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +6 Elo | PIT 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–45 | Road vs home | 36–3217th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 24th of 301473 | Elo rating | 147823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–63 | 63–71 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–27 | 22–42 |
| Underdog | 55–36 | 41–29 |
| Overs–unders | 57–77 | 72–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 21–17 STL in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 38.