St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony VenezianoPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rays- Carson WilliamsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caminero homered to center (426 feet).6–10
- 7Williams homered to center (410 feet), Pereira scored.6–9
- 7Contreras homered to right center (367 feet), Herrera scored.6–7
- 7Church homered to center (414 feet), Walker scored.4–7
- 6Saggese grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Contreras scored, Winn out at second.2–7
- 4Mangum doubled to left, J. Lowe scored and B. Lowe scored.1–7
- 3B. Seymour singled to right, Mangum scored.1–5
- 3Williams reached on infield single to shortstop, J. Lowe scored, Mangum to third.1–4
- 2Gray homered to right (359 feet), Williams scored.1–3
- 2Pozo singled to right, Winn scored.1–1
- 1B. Lowe homered to right center (428 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML STL +115 / TB -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- TB: Elo 56.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +10 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +45 Elo | TB 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 3029–35 | Road vs home | 32–3323rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Elo rating | 149718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–66 | 63–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–39 | 22–41 |
| Underdog | 41–27 | 41–24 |
| Overs–unders | 68–61 | 56–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–2 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.