St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Eric WagamanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gorman homered to right (365 feet), Contreras scored.8–3
- 9Hampson scored, Contreras to second on a passed ball by Ramírez.6–3
- 9Hampson scored on a passed ball by Ramírez, Contreras to second on passed ball by Ramírez.6–3
- 8Pagés singled to right, Gorman scored, Pagés to second.5–3
- 7Burleson singled to center, Herrera scored.4–3
- 6Marsee doubled to shortstop, Ramírez scored.3–3
- 5Contreras hit sacrifice fly to center, Nootbaar scored.3–2
- 5Burleson reached on infield single to shortstop, Church scored, Herrera to second, Nootbaar to third.2–2
- 5Nootbaar singled to left, Pagés scored, Church to third.1–2
- 4Wagaman homered to center (409 feet).0–2
- 1Marsee hit sacrifice fly to left, Lopez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 57%
- ML STL +125 / MIA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 52.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -135
- STL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.4 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +17 Elo | MIA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3026–34 | Road vs home | 28–3126th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301481 | Elo rating | 147824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–65 | 70–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–39 | 5–19 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 65–35 |
| Overs–unders | 65–60 | 59–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–8 MIA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.