St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Saggese hit sacrifice fly to left, Winn scored.7–4
- 6Lopez singled to center, Edwards scored and Ramírez scored.6–4
- 5Church hit sacrifice bunt to first, Saggese scored, Pagés to second.6–2
- 5Pagés struck out, Winn scored on a passed ball by Ramírez, Pagés to first on passed ball by Ramírez, Saggese to third on passed ball by Ramírez.5–2
- 4Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Marsee scored on error, Ramírez safe at second on throwing error by pitcher McGreevy.4–2
- 4Marsee tripled to left, Edwards scored.4–1
- 3Pagés singled to right, Gorman scored, Saggese to third.4–0
- 2Herrera singled to right, Saggese scored and Church scored.3–0
- 1Herrera singled to right, Nootbaar scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 57%
- ML STL +125 / MIA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 51.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -135
- STL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.4 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +8 Elo | MIA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 19th of 3027–34 | Road vs home | 28–3226th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Elo rating | 147524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–65 | 70–55 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–39 | 5–20 |
| Underdog | 39–26 | 65–35 |
| Overs–unders | 66–60 | 60–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–8 MIA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.