St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caminero grounded out to third, Simpson scored, B. Lowe to second, Mangum to third.7–4
- 7Contreras homered to left center (423 feet).7–3
- 4Herrera singled to left, Church scored, Nootbaar to second.6–3
- 3Díaz homered to right (382 feet), Simpson scored.5–3
- 2Burleson singled to right, Nootbaar scored and Herrera scored.5–1
- 2Church scored on Boyle wild pitch, Herrera to second on wild pitch by Boyle, Nootbaar to third on wild pitch by Boyle.3–1
- 2Church scored on Boyle wild pitch, Herrera to second on wild pitch by Boyle, Nootbaar to third on wild pitch by Boyle.3–1
- 2Nootbaar doubled to center, Pagés scored, Church to third.2–1
- 2Church grounded into fielder's choice to first, Saggese scored, Pagés third.1–1
- 1B. Lowe grounded out to pitcher, Simpson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / TB -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- STL: Elo 46.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −16 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +22 Elo | TB 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 20th of 3028–35 | Road vs home | 32–3222nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 21st of 301484 | Elo rating | 149918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–66 | 63–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–39 | 22–40 |
| Underdog | 40–27 | 41–24 |
| Overs–unders | 67–61 | 55–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–2 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.