St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marsee walked, Hill scored, Edwards to second, Sanoja to third.2–6
- 6Acosta homered to center (418 feet).2–5
- 6Contreras homered to left center (414 feet).2–4
- 5Johnston singled to center, Hicks scored, Hernández thrown out at third.1–4
- 5Nootbaar hit a ground rule double, Pozo scored, Walker to third.1–3
- 3Hernández singled to center, Marsee scored and Ramírez scored.0–3
- 2Sanoja grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Hernández scored, Johnston out at second, Wiemer to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML STL -105 / MIA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 50.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −9 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +1 Elo | MIA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 19th of 3028–34 | Road vs home | 28–3326th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 147324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–65 | 70–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–39 | 5–21 |
| Underdog | 40–26 | 65–35 |
| Overs–unders | 67–60 | 61–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 10–8 MIA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.