Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Contreras grounded out to third, Nootbaar scored.8–3
- 4Gorman homered to right (415 feet), Contreras scored.8–2
- 3Davis homered to left (403 feet).8–0
- 2Cruz grounded out to shortstop, Reynolds scored.7–0
- 2Reynolds doubled to center, Horwitz scored on fielding error by center fielder Nootbaar, Reynolds to third.6–0
- 1Davis hit sacrifice fly to right, McCutchen scored.5–0
- 1Suwinski hit a ground rule double, Cruz scored, McCutchen to third.4–0
- 1McCutchen singled to right, Horwitz scored and Reynolds scored, Cruz to third.3–0
- 1Reynolds doubled to left, Triolo scored, Horwitz to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML PIT +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- STL: Elo 54.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −6 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +32 Elo | STL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 3018–45 | Road vs home | 36–3016th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 26th of 301469 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–63 | 63–69 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–27 | 22–40 |
| Underdog | 53–36 | 41–29 |
| Overs–unders | 56–76 | 71–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 19–17 STL in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 36.