Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burleson homered to center (409 feet).6–7
- 9Simon doubled to right, Peguero scored.6–6
- 7N. Gonzales hit sacrifice fly to right, Suwinski scored, Bart to third.5–6
- 5Saggese singled to left, Gorman scored.4–6
- 5Gorman doubled to center, Contreras scored.4–5
- 5Contreras singled to center, Winn scored and Burleson scored.4–4
- 5Winn reached on infield single to third, Church scored.4–2
- 3Horwitz homered to right center (413 feet).4–1
- 3Reynolds homered to right (432 feet), N. Gonzales scored.3–1
- 2Church hit sacrifice fly to left, Gorman scored.1–1
- 1Horwitz grounded out to shortstop, Simon scored, Reynolds to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML PIT +110 / STL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- STL: Elo 54.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 3.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +31 Elo | STL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 29th of 3018–44 | Road vs home | 35–3017th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 25th of 301470 | Elo rating | 148122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–63 | 63–68 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–27 | 22–39 |
| Underdog | 52–36 | 41–29 |
| Overs–unders | 55–76 | 70–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 19–16 STL in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 35.