Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Tommy PhamBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Pedro PagesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Pham singled to center, Horwitz scored and Triolo scored, Reynolds to second.2–1
- 2Pagés singled to right, Winn scored, Saggese thrown out at third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 61%
- ML PIT +145 / STL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- STL: Elo 53.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +27 Elo | STL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3019–45 | Road vs home | 36–3117th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 24th of 301472 | Elo rating | 147922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–63 | 63–70 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–27 | 22–41 |
| Underdog | 54–36 | 41–29 |
| Overs–unders | 57–76 | 72–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 20–17 STL in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 37.