St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Pedro PagesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Winn singled to left, Contreras scored, Gorman to third.7–5
- 10Church scored, Contreras safe at first on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz.6–5
- 8Hayes homered to right center (371 feet).5–5
- 8Winn doubled to left, Hampson scored.5–4
- 7Andujar singled to center, De La Cruz scored.4–4
- 6Steer homered to center (407 feet).4–3
- 3Winn singled to right, Herrera scored, Gorman to second, Contreras to third.4–2
- 2Pagés homered to left (407 feet), Saggese scored.3–2
- 1Hays hit sacrifice fly to center, De La Cruz scored.1–2
- 1Marte homered to left center (444 feet).1–1
- 1Herrera homered to right center (395 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML STL +125 / CIN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -135
- STL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −6 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Zack Littell: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +32 Elo | CIN 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3029–37 | Road vs home | 36–2815th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301480 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–71 | 71–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 21–39 |
| Underdog | 41–29 | 49–24 |
| Overs–unders | 72–63 | 53–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 17–16 CIN in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 33.