Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Austin HaysBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nabil CrismattPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perdomo singled to left, McCarthy scored, Del Castillo to second.1–10
- 8Marte singled to left, Alexander scored, McCarthy to third.1–9
- 8Hays singled to left, McLain scored.1–8
- 5Alexander homered to left (371 feet).0–8
- 4Perdomo homered to left (423 feet), Marte scored.0–7
- 3Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (392 feet), Perdomo scored.0–5
- 1Alexander hit a ground rule double, Moreno scored.0–3
- 1Moreno doubled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Carroll scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML CIN -120 / ARI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 46.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +14 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Jalen Beeks: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +23 Elo | ARI 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3031–33 | Road vs home | 33–3118th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 150515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–59 | 64–65 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 30–44 |
| Underdog | 48–21 | 34–21 |
| Overs–unders | 51–78 | 66–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–9 ARI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.