Cleveland Guardians at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- CJ KayfusBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perdomo tripled to right, Alexander scored.3–1
- 5Rocchio homered to right center (389 feet), Kayfus scored.3–0
- 2Kayfus homered to right center (406 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML CLE -105 / ARI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | 0 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +34 Elo | ARI 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3032–29 | Road vs home | 30–3021st of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Elo rating | 150417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–64 | 64–61 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 30–40 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 34–21 |
| Overs–unders | 59–64 | 64–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–5 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.