Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Hurston WaldrepPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4
- Joey CantilloPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harris II singled to left, White scored.2–0
- 4Alvarez Jr. walked, Albies scored, Murphy to second, Harris II to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML ATL -105 / CLE -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +7 | ATL: Hurston Waldrep: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +23 Elo | CLE 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 27th of 3022–38 | Road vs home | 31–2818th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–66 | 59–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–47 | 21–35 |
| Underdog | 22–19 | 38–26 |
| Overs–unders | 57–64 | 57–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–2 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.