Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron BummerPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ozuna homered to left (369 feet), Olson scored.11–6
- 4Harris II homered to center (417 feet), Olson scored, Ozuna scored and Murphy scored.9–6
- 4Ozuna singled to left, Profar scored, Olson to third.5–6
- 4Profar doubled to left, Allen scored, Harris II scored and Alvarez Jr. scored.4–6
- 4Allen walked, Murphy scored, Alvarez Jr. to second, Harris II to third.1–6
- 2McNeil doubled to right, Nimmo scored.0–6
- 2J. Soto homered to center (407 feet), Lindor scored.0–5
- 1Mullins hit sacrifice fly to right, Nimmo scored.0–3
- 1Alonso singled to center, J. Soto scored and Lindor scored, Nimmo to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 63%
- ML ATL +165 / NYM -190
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 57.0%, market 63.5%
- Fair odds
- NYM -174
- ATL +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.6 – 4.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +4 | ATL: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +49 Elo | NYM 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–38 | Road vs home | 39–214th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 151811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–66 | 55–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–47 | 32–51 |
| Underdog | 20–19 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 56–63 | 53–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 22–12 NYM in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 34.