Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Nacho Alvarez Jr.Batting2-3, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Justin HagenmanPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Baty homered to center (401 feet).5–13
- 7Alvarez homered to left center (382 feet).5–12
- 6Alonso homered to center (413 feet).5–11
- 5Baty singled to center, Alvarez scored.5–10
- 5Alvarez doubled to center, Mullins scored.5–9
- 4Nimmo homered to right center (387 feet), Lindor scored and J. Soto scored.5–8
- 4Olson doubled to left, Alvarez Jr. scored, Profar to third.5–5
- 4Profar grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bruján scored, Allen out at second, Alvarez Jr. to third.4–5
- 4Alvarez Jr. doubled to left, Harris II scored and Albies scored, Bruján to third.3–5
- 3Alonso homered to right center (394 feet), Nimmo scored.1–5
- 2Alvarez homered to right center (413 feet), Mullins scored.1–3
- 2Mullins singled to center, Alonso scored.1–1
- 1Baldwin grounded out to second, Profar scored, Olson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML ATL +120 / NYM -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -130
- ATL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +3 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +23 Elo | NYM 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–37 | Road vs home | 38–214th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Elo rating | 151512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–65 | 54–64 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 33–47 | 31–51 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 55–63 | 52–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 22–11 NYM in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 33.