Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Albies doubled to right, Harris II scored.4–3
- 8Harris II doubled to center, White scored.3–3
- 6Alonso singled to left, J. Soto scored.2–3
- 6Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to left, Lindor scored.2–2
- 6Albies singled to left, Baldwin scored, Harris II to second.2–1
- 4Albies homered to right center (377 feet).1–1
- 3Lindor homered to center (409 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 62%
- ML ATL +155 / NYM -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -166
- ATL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.7 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +11 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +39 Elo | NYM 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 27th of 3021–38 | Road vs home | 39–225th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Elo rating | 151411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–66 | 55–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–47 | 32–52 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 57–63 | 54–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 23–12 NYM in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 35.