Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ozuna hit sacrifice fly to right, Acuña Jr. scored.10–1
- 6Baldwin grounded out to second, Olson scored, Acuña Jr. to third.9–1
- 5Harris II homered to right (424 feet), Baldwin scored and Ozuna scored.8–1
- 4Olson sacrificed into double play, left to left to third, Allen scored, Profar thrown out at third.5–1
- 4Alvarez Jr. scored on Cecconi wild pitch, Profar to second on wild pitch by Cecconi, Allen to third on wild pitch by Cecconi.5–1
- 4Alvarez Jr. scored on Cecconi wild pitch, Profar to second on wild pitch by Cecconi, Allen to third on wild pitch by Cecconi.5–1
- 3Rocchio homered to left (378 feet).3–1
- 2Allen doubled to left, Alvarez Jr. scored and Ozuna scored.3–0
- 2Alvarez Jr. singled to left, Baldwin scored, Ozuna to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML ATL -110 / CLE -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −4 | ATL: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +16 Elo | CLE 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3023–38 | Road vs home | 31–2919th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 150119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–66 | 59–62 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–47 | 21–36 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 38–26 |
| Overs–unders | 57–65 | 57–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–2 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.