Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Profar homered to right (339 feet), Alvarez Jr. scored.5–4
- 5Albies singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Harris II to second, Ozuna to third.3–4
- 5Allen scored, Harris II safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Martínez, Ozuna to second, Acuña Jr. to third.2–4
- 4Schneemann tripled to center, Jones scored and Kwan scored.1–4
- 3Naylor doubled to right, Schneemann scored, Manzardo to third.1–2
- 3Manzardo hit sacrifice fly, Kwan scored, Manzardo to first on fielding error by left fielder Profar.1–1
- 2Alvarez Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Harris II scored, Murphy out at second, Albies to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML ATL -105 / CLE -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | 0 | ATL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +15 Elo | CLE 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 3024–38 | Road vs home | 31–3021st of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 16th of 301507 | Elo rating | 149719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–66 | 59–63 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–47 | 21–37 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 38–26 |
| Overs–unders | 58–65 | 58–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–2 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.