Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Carroll scored.5–6
- 10Marte singled to center, Thomas scored.5–5
- 10Hayes scored on error, Trevino safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Curtiss, Trevino safe at second on error.5–4
- 8De La Cruz singled to right, Andujar scored.4–4
- 6Hays grounded out to shortstop, De La Cruz scored.3–4
- 3Moreno homered to left (403 feet), Carroll scored and Smith scored.2–4
- 2Trevino singled to right, Hayes scored.2–1
- 2Hayes doubled to center, Marte scored, Hayes to third.1–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Perdomo scored, Carroll to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML CIN +115 / ARI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −1 | CIN: Zack Littell: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +10 Elo | ARI 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 3031–32 | Road vs home | 32–3119th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–59 | 64–64 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 30–43 |
| Underdog | 47–21 | 34–21 |
| Overs–unders | 50–78 | 65–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–8 ARI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.