Cleveland Guardians at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hedges singled to left, Arias scored, Rocchio to third.5–6
- 7Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Perdomo scored and Carroll scored.4–6
- 5Carroll tripled to center, Perdomo scored.4–4
- 5Perdomo singled to left, Thomas scored.4–3
- 5Ramírez homered to left center (409 feet), Martínez scored.4–2
- 4Gurriel Jr. grounded out to first, Carroll scored.2–2
- 4Jones singled to right, Santana scored, Jones to second.2–1
- 4Santana singled to center, Ramírez scored.1–1
- 3McCarthy homered to left (381 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML CLE +105 / ARI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +20 Elo | ARI 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3033–29 | Road vs home | 30–3124th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–64 | 64–62 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 30–41 |
| Underdog | 39–26 | 34–21 |
| Overs–unders | 59–65 | 64–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–5 ARI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.