Cleveland Guardians at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting2-4
- Parker MessickPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Del Castillo singled to left, Smith scored.2–3
- 9Gurriel Jr. homered to left (424 feet).2–2
- 2Rocchio grounded out to second, Kayfus scored.2–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Marte scored.1–1
- 1Naylor grounded out to second, Kwan scored, Manzardo to second, Schneemann to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 50%
- ML CLE -110 / ARI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -100
- CLE -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | CLE: Parker Messick (no track record yet) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +21 Elo | ARI 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3033–30 | Road vs home | 31–3121st of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–64 | 64–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 30–42 |
| Underdog | 40–26 | 34–21 |
| Overs–unders | 60–65 | 65–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–6 ARI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.