Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-4
- Hunter GreenePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pages hit sacrifice fly to left, T. Hernández scored.0–7
- 7Betts homered to left (353 feet).0–6
- 6Freeman scored and Smith scored on error, Pages safe at first on fielding error by shortstop De La Cruz, Pages safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Hays, T. Hernández to third.0–5
- 5Pages homered to left (361 feet), Conforto scored.0–3
- 3Pages homered to left (392 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML CIN +120 / LAD -145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- CIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 4.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −10 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +35 Elo | LAD 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3032–34 | Road vs home | 41–247th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15492nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–60 | 55–76 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 42–68 |
| Underdog | 49–21 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 52–79 | 68–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–7 LAD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.