Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Padres- Elias DiazBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani homered to right center (409 feet).8–2
- 7Freeman homered to right (349 feet), Betts scored.7–2
- 7Rushing homered to right center (387 feet), Pages scored and Conforto scored.5–2
- 6Freeman homered to center (415 feet).2–2
- 3Díaz homered to left center (413 feet), Cronenworth scored.1–2
- 1T. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML LAD -115 / SD -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 45.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +15 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +31 Elo | SD 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 15th of 3030–33 | Road vs home | 43–211st of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301545 | Elo rating | 15425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–76 | 75–55 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 42–68 | 32–38 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 43–17 |
| Overs–unders | 67–63 | 55–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 25–18 SD in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 43.