Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Alex FreelandBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Machado scored.1–2
- 4Machado singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.1–1
- 3Freeland homered to right (394 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML LAD -125 / SD +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 50.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +4 | LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +6 Elo | LAD 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3030–31 | Road vs home | 41–213rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301549 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–74 | 73–55 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 42–66 | 32–38 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 41–17 |
| Overs–unders | 67–61 | 55–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 25–16 SD in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 41.