Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Alex FreelandBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bogaerts doubled to right, Machado scored and Tatis Jr. scored.1–5
- 8Freeland homered to right center (388 feet).1–3
- 4Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to left, Bogaerts scored.0–3
- 4Laureano singled to right, Machado scored and O'Hearn scored, Bogaerts to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -145 / SD +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 49.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- SD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −7 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD 0 Elo | SD 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3030–32 | Road vs home | 42–212nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Elo rating | 15404th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–75 | 74–55 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 42–67 | 32–38 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 42–17 |
| Overs–unders | 67–62 | 55–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 25–17 SD in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 42.