Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-3
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Friedl singled to right, McLain scored, Trevino to second.6–1
- 8Steer homered to left (397 feet), Hays scored and Benson scored.5–1
- 8Hays singled to center, Marte scored.2–1
- 6Marte tripled to center, Marte scored on throwing error by shortstop Perdomo.1–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Perdomo scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML CIN +110 / ARI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +15 Elo | ARI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3031–34 | Road vs home | 34–3118th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 14th of 301510 | Elo rating | 150815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–60 | 65–65 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 30–44 |
| Underdog | 48–21 | 35–21 |
| Overs–unders | 52–78 | 67–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–10 ARI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.