Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Austin HaysBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hays homered to left center (373 feet), Andujar scored.3–6
- 6Ohtani singled to right, Rojas scored.1–6
- 6Rojas doubled to center, E. Hernández scored and Call scored.1–5
- 6Smith homered to center (388 feet).1–3
- 4E. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to left, T. Hernández scored.1–2
- 1Freeman doubled to left, Betts scored on throwing error by left fielder Hays.1–1
- 1Andujar grounded out to third, Steer scored, De La Cruz to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML CIN +155 / LAD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- CIN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +2 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +62 Elo | LAD 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 12th of 3032–35 | Road vs home | 42–247th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 14th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15512nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–61 | 56–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 43–68 |
| Underdog | 49–22 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 52–80 | 68–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–8 LAD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.