Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Michael ConfortoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Conforto homered to right center (419 feet).1–5
- 4Rushing singled to center, E. Hernández scored and Pages scored, Rojas to third.1–4
- 4E. Hernández singled to center, Ohtani scored and T. Hernández scored, Pages to second.1–2
- 3Marte homered to left center (410 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML CIN +150 / LAD -180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -161
- CIN +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −13 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +42 Elo | LAD 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 3032–36 | Road vs home | 43–245th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15532nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–62 | 57–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 44–68 |
| Underdog | 49–23 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 53–80 | 69–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–9 LAD in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.