Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis MoralesPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermín singled to left, Saggese scored.11–3
- 8Soderstrom doubled to center, Butler scored and Wilson scored.11–2
- 8Butler singled to right, Gelof scored.9–2
- 8MacIver grounded out to shortstop, Bleday scored.8–2
- 7Soderstrom singled to center, Wilson scored, Rooker to third.7–2
- 7Rooker hit a ground rule double, Butler scored, Wilson to third.6–2
- 6Winn singled to center, Nootbaar scored, Gorman to second.5–2
- 6Bleday homered to right (428 feet).5–1
- 6Thomas singled to center, Hernaiz scored, Thomas thrown out at second.4–1
- 4Herrera homered to left (418 feet).3–1
- 4Gelof homered to right center (385 feet).3–0
- 4Bleday homered to right (381 feet), Hernaiz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML ATH +125 / STL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- STL: Elo 51.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -135
- ATH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +3 | ATH: Luis Morales: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +11 Elo | STL 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 6th of 3034–35 | Road vs home | 37–3216th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 26th of 301472 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–63 | 66–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–20 | 23–42 |
| Underdog | 59–43 | 43–30 |
| Overs–unders | 74–64 | 74–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 2–4 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.
