Detroit Tigers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Hernaiz walked, Soderstrom scored, Butler to second, Wilson to third.6–7
- 10Soderstrom singled to left, Rooker scored, Soderstrom to second.6–6
- 10McKinstry singled to right, Carpenter scored, Pérez to third.6–5
- 5Keith homered to right center (394 feet).5–5
- 3Wilson grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rooker scored, Soderstrom out at second.4–5
- 3Soderstrom singled to left, Langeliers scored, Rooker to third.4–4
- 3Greene homered to center (471 feet), Rogers scored, Keith scored and Torres scored.4–3
- 1Wilson homered to left (363 feet), Kurtz scored and Langeliers scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML DET -125 / ATH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- DET: Elo 59.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.4 – 5.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −28 | DET: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 1.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +63 Elo | DET 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3034–30 | Road vs home | 27–3728th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 10th of 301521 | Elo rating | 147423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–69 | 73–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 45–50 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 19–19 | 57–41 |
| Overs–unders | 73–60 | 71–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 8–9 ATH in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 17.
