Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MoralesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wilson singled to center, Rooker scored, Soderstrom to second.2–3
- 7Polanco homered to right center (368 feet).1–3
- 7Naylor homered to right center (397 feet).1–2
- 5Suárez homered to left (373 feet).1–1
- 1Rooker homered to left center (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 66%
- ML ATH +185 / SEA -225
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.3%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -197
- ATH +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.5 – 5.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +3 | ATH: Luis Morales: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +51 Elo | SEA 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 63.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3033–33 | Road vs home | 37–2510th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 25th of 301473 | Elo rating | 151412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–59 | 53–75 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 16–19 | 24–55 |
| Underdog | 54–40 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders | 69–60 | 70–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 10–26 SEA in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 36.