Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Realmuto homered to left center (431 feet), Harper scored.4–6
- 7Suárez doubled to left, Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored.4–4
- 7Rodríguez grounded out to pitcher, Moore scored, Raleigh to second, Arozarena to third.2–4
- 4Stott homered to right (393 feet).1–4
- 3Realmuto singled to center, Turner scored.1–3
- 3Harper hit sacrifice fly to center, Stott scored, Turner to third.1–2
- 3Arozarena doubled to center, Crawford scored.1–1
- 1Schwarber homered to right center (404 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 65%
- ML SEA +175 / PHI -210
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.1%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -186
- SEA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.6 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +15 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +64 Elo | PHI 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 9th of 3031–32 | Road vs home | 38–213rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 10th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15413rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–73 | 63–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–55 | 47–54 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 68–58 | 56–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–4 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.