Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-5
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Paul DeJongBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brad LordPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tena singled to center, Adams scored and DeJong scored, Lile to second.2–3
- 5Schwarber doubled to center, Turner scored.2–1
- 4DeJong homered to left center (381 feet).1–1
- 3Harper grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Stott scored, Turner out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML PHI -200 / WSH +165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -177
- WSH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.9 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +8 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +60 Elo | PHI 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 3032–30 | Road vs home | 22–3629th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301539 | Elo rating | 144328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–60 | 59–61 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 44–52 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 57–42 |
| Overs–unders | 53–67 | 65–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 20–12 WSH in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 32.