Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lile singled to right, García Jr. scored, Lowe to second.8–7
- 8Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Tolbert scored.7–7
- 4Pasquantino homered to right (410 feet), Yastrzemski scored and Witt Jr. scored.7–6
- 4Abrams homered to right (368 feet).7–3
- 3House singled to center, Lile scored, Millas to second.6–3
- 2Witt Jr. singled to right, Rave scored, Isbel to third.5–3
- 1Frazier singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Garcia to second.5–2
- 1Pasquantino grounded out to second, Yastrzemski scored, Witt Jr. to third.5–1
- 1Millas doubled to right, Lile scored.5–0
- 1Lowe homered to right (403 feet), Wood scored, García Jr. scored and Bell scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 61%
- ML WSH +145 / KC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- KC: Elo 60.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- KC -156
- WSH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −8 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +76 Elo | KC 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3025–36 | Road vs home | 30–2819th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 28th of 301441 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–61 | 59–61 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 18–33 |
| Underdog | 56–42 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 64–55 | 53–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–6 KC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.