Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Paul DeJongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yastrzemski hit sacrifice fly to left, Tolbert scored.4–7
- 6Isbel homered to right (397 feet), Loftin scored.4–6
- 6Perez homered to left (404 feet), Garcia scored.4–4
- 5DeJong homered to center (418 feet), Wood scored.4–2
- 2Loftin hit sacrifice fly to center, Perez scored, Grichuk to second, Frazier to third.2–2
- 2Frazier singled to left, Garcia scored, Perez to second.2–1
- 1Bell homered to left center (422 feet), Wood scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 58%
- ML WSH +130 / KC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- KC: Elo 56.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −5 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · KC: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +47 Elo | KC 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–34 | Road vs home | 28–2821st of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 28th of 301445 | Elo rating | 149919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–59 | 57–61 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 16–33 |
| Underdog | 56–40 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 62–55 | 51–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–4 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.