Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lile singled to right, DeJong scored.5–8
- 7Pasquantino doubled to right, Tolbert scored, Witt Jr. to third.4–8
- 7Abrams singled to right, Wood scored.4–7
- 7Wood doubled to left, Hassell III scored.3–7
- 6India homered to left (396 feet), Grichuk scored.2–7
- 6Grichuk doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.2–5
- 6DeJong grounded into fielder's choice to center, Abrams scored, Bell out at second.2–4
- 5García Jr. tripled to right, Adams scored.1–4
- 3Pasquantino homered to right (361 feet), Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.0–4
- 1Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to left, Garcia scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 63%
- ML WSH +160 / KC -190
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- KC: Elo 63.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 5.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +1 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +93 Elo | KC 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3025–35 | Road vs home | 29–2820th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 28th of 301443 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–60 | 58–61 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 17–33 |
| Underdog | 56–41 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 63–55 | 52–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–5 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.