Seattle Mariners at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suárez homered to left center (412 feet).1–3
- 7Alonso doubled to left, Nimmo scored.0–3
- 7J. Soto hit sacrifice fly to center, Baty scored.0–2
- 3Lindor doubled to right, Baty scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML SEA -115 / NYM -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −5 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +3 Elo | SEA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 6th of 3031–30 | Road vs home | 39–247th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 9th of 301525 | Elo rating | 151212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–70 | 55–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–54 | 32–54 |
| Underdog | 29–16 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 66–57 | 55–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–2 NYM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.