Seattle Mariners at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez homered to right (363 feet), McNeil scored and Mullins scored.11–9
- 8Rodríguez doubled to center, Raleigh scored.11–6
- 7Young doubled to right, Garver scored and Moore scored.10–6
- 7Solano doubled to left, Canzone scored, Garver to third.8–6
- 7Canzone singled to center, Suárez scored.7–6
- 7Suárez doubled to left, Raleigh scored.6–6
- 6Young singled to center, Solano scored.5–6
- 4J. Soto homered to center (404 feet).4–6
- 4Lindor homered to right center (379 feet), Mauricio scored.4–5
- 3Raleigh homered to left (382 feet), Arozarena scored.4–3
- 2Lindor singled to center, Alvarez scored, Mauricio to second.2–3
- 2Alvarez singled to center, McNeil scored.2–2
- 2Garver homered to center (405 feet).2–1
- 1Lindor homered to left (369 feet).1–1
- 1Rodríguez doubled to left, Arozarena scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML SEA +115 / NYM -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −14 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +13 Elo | SEA 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 7th of 3030–30 | Road vs home | 39–237th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 9th of 301523 | Elo rating | 151312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–70 | 55–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–54 | 32–53 |
| Underdog | 28–16 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 65–57 | 54–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–2 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.