Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-4
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Wood doubled to right, Crews scored and House scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PHI -155 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -134
- WSH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.1 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +12 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +56 Elo | PHI 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3033–31 | Road vs home | 23–3729th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301540 | Elo rating | 144228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–61 | 60–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 45–53 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 58–43 |
| Overs–unders | 54–68 | 66–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 21–13 WSH in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 34.