Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Carlos VargasPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting4-6, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crawford scored on Hoffman wild pitch.7–12
- 9Crawford scored on Hoffman wild pitch.7–12
- 9Young grounded out to second, Garver scored, Crawford to third.6–12
- 9Garver singled to right, Naylor scored.5–12
- 8Turner singled to left, Castellanos scored, Stott to second.4–12
- 7Harper homered to right center (448 feet), Schwarber scored.4–11
- 7Schwarber singled to center, Turner scored.4–9
- 7Turner doubled to right, Kepler scored.4–8
- 7Young homered to right (389 feet), Canzone scored and Crawford scored.4–7
- 7Garver homered to center (404 feet).1–7
- 6Harper homered to right center (440 feet).0–7
- 2Realmuto homered to left (404 feet).0–6
- 2Turner homered to left (365 feet), Kepler scored and Stott scored.0–5
- 2Stott doubled to right, Castellanos scored, Kepler to third.0–2
- 2Kepler singled to center, Marsh scored, Castellanos to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML SEA -105 / PHI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.7 – 3.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +39 Elo | PHI 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 3031–31 | Road vs home | 37–215th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 8th of 301521 | Elo rating | 15393rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–72 | 62–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–55 | 46–54 |
| Underdog | 29–17 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 67–58 | 55–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–3 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.