Seattle Mariners at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Raleigh homered to left (338 feet), Arozarena scored.3–7
- 5Lindor doubled to right, Mullins scored.1–7
- 5Vientos homered to right (385 feet), McNeil scored and Alvarez scored.1–6
- 4Polanco singled to center, Rodríguez scored.1–3
- 2Vientos hit sacrifice fly to center, Alvarez scored.0–3
- 2Baty singled to center, McNeil scored, Alvarez to third.0–2
- 2Alvarez doubled to center, Alonso scored, McNeil to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SEA -125 / NYM +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +2 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +18 Elo | SEA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 8th of 301523 | Elo rating | 151312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–71 | 56–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–54 | 33–54 |
| Underdog | 29–17 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 66–58 | 55–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–3 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.